Bitcoin is still stuck in tight consolidation, bouncing off support around $3,835 and resistance at $3,950. Price is at the middle of its range and could be due for a breakout anytime soon.
The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA to hint that the path of least resistance is to the downside or that a move lower is more likely to happen. This could either mean a test of support or a break lower and a drop that’s the same height as the chart formation.
Price is moving below both moving averages to indicate that bearish pressure is in play. Then again, the gap between the moving averages is narrowing to reflect slightly weakening selling pressure. A move above both could spur a test of the range top or a break higher, leading to a rally of the same size.
RSI is pointing down, also indicating that selling pressure is present, even though overbought conditions have not been met. Stochastic is on the move up to signal that buyers might still have some energy left but a downward crossover or early bearish signal seems to be brewing.
Traders are still holding out for actual developments in the space before piling on long positions, possibly waiting to see if Fidelity is able to push through with its institutional platform launch. More so, market watchers are eager to find out how banks and funds will position themselves. Also, the increase in volume might be weighing on volatility as more and bigger players enter the field.
Meanwhile, the dollar would likely take cues from overall sentiment, as well as economic data like the NFP release. It’s no secret that the Fed is looking to slow down its pace of tightening but an upside jobs data surprise could still keep bulls hopeful that another hike is in the works soon.